Nepean

Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Nepean	63.1%	24.3%	4.1%	2.0%
Provincial averageOntario	48.3%+14.7	34.5%−10.1	5.0%−1.0	2.3%−0.3
National averageCanada	46.8%+16.3	30.4%−6.1	11.2%−7.1	2.7%−0.7

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 3.1% English 78.2% Other languages 18.7%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Mark Carney · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 30.4 points, with 77.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 38.7 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Mark Carney Elected	Liberal	46,073	63.4	Prime Minister of Canada
Barbara Bal	Conservative	24,017	33.1	Police Officer
Shyam Shukla	NDP	1,424	2.0	IT Team Leader
Greg Hopkins	Green	462	0.6	Child and Youth Counsellor
Eric Fleury	PPC	261	0.4	Small Business Owner
Other candidates		422	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.