Riding profile
Nepean
The question
Nepean: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 3% francophone, 78% anglophone.
Sitting member
Mark Carney
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNepean | 60.5% | 27.0% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +14.8 | 37.5% −10.5 | 6.4% −0.6 | 1.6% −0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +18.6 | 34.8% −7.8 | 14.2% −8.4 | 2.1% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney Elected | Liberal | 46,073 | 63.8 | Prime Minister of Canada |
| Barbara Bal | Conservative | 24,017 | 33.2 | Police Officer |
| Shyam Shukla | NDP | 1,424 | 2.0 | IT Team Leader |
| Greg Hopkins | Green | 462 | 0.6 | Child and Youth Counsellor |
| Eric Fleury | PPC | 261 | 0.4 | Small Business Owner |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 3.1%
- Anglophone 78.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46