Riding profile
Carleton
The question
Carleton: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Carleton, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 3% francophone, 90% anglophone.
Sitting member
Bruce Fanjoy
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.1
- P(close race)
- 16%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCarleton | 46.7% | 39.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +1.0 | 37.5% +2.1 | 6.4% −2.7 | 1.6% −0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +4.8 | 34.8% +4.8 | 14.2% −10.5 | 2.1% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Fanjoy Elected | Liberal | 43,846 | 50.9 | Retired |
| Pierre Poilievre | Conservative | 39,333 | 45.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Beth Prokaska | NDP | 1,221 | 1.4 | Retired Teacher |
| Mark Watson | Green | 561 | 0.7 | Entrepreneur |
| Karen Bourdeau | Other | 112 | 0.1 | Administrator |
| Shawn MacEachern | Other | 63 | 0.1 | Senior Manager Personnel Support |
| Lorant Polya | Independent | 57 | 0.1 | Software Developer |
| Scott Falkingham | Independent | 45 | 0.1 | Software Developer |
| Sana Ahmad | Independent | 41 | 0.0 | Organizer |
| Pierre Gauthier | Independent | 38 | 0.0 | Accounting Technician |
| Guillaume Paradis | Independent | 37 | 0.0 | IT Analyst |
| Danny Légaré | Other | 37 | 0.0 | Web Designer |
| Dan Kyung | Independent | 35 | 0.0 | Software Engineer |
| Sébastien CoRhino | Other | 31 | 0.0 | Inventor |
| Sarah Burke | Independent | 27 | 0.0 | Electrical Engineer |
| Mark Moutter | Independent | 23 | 0.0 | Student |
| David Zhu | Independent | 21 | 0.0 | Software Architect |
| Charlie Currie | Independent | 20 | 0.0 | Stand-up Comic and Comedy Writer |
| John Dale | Independent | 20 | 0.0 | PhD Student |
| Euan Fraser Tait | Independent | 18 | 0.0 | Psychotherapist |
| John Boylan | Independent | 17 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Mélodie Anderson | Independent | 16 | 0.0 | Small-Scale Farmer |
| Alex Banks | Independent | 16 | 0.0 | Instrumentation and Control Technician |
| Michael Bednarski | Independent | 15 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| David Nguyen | Independent | 15 | 0.0 | Video Game Developer |
| Sophie Bearden | Independent | 14 | 0.0 | Project Coordinator |
| Seyed Hosseini Lavasani | Independent | 13 | 0.0 | Mathematician |
| Darcy Vanderwater | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Student |
| Jeani Boudreault | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Social Work |
| Alexandra Engering | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Forest School Educator |
| Lajos Polya | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Software Developer |
| Donald McKay | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Jenny Cartwright | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Documentary Filmmaker |
| Jeffrey Goodman | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Retired Financial Planner |
| Daniel Stuckless | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Academic |
| Laina Kohler | Independent | 10 | 0.0 | Product Engineer |
| Charles Lemieux | Independent | 10 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Maria Gabriel | Independent | 10 | 0.0 | Personal Support Worker |
| Sarah Thompson | Independent | 9 | 0.0 | Adult Educator |
| Ryan Huard | Independent | 9 | 0.0 | Security Firmware Engineer |
| Marthalee Aykroyd | Independent | 9 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Andrea Hollinger | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Student |
| Robert Harris | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Unemployed |
| Connie Lukawski | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Software Developer |
| Alain Bourgault | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Retired |
| John Francis O'Flynn | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Daniel Gagnon | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Computer Scientist |
| Julian Selody | Independent | 7 | 0.0 | Musician |
| Peter Gorman | Independent | 7 | 0.0 | Librarian |
| Michal Wieczorek | Independent | 7 | 0.0 | Data Scientist |
| Line Bélanger | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Alexander Lein | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | General Manager |
| Agnieszka Marszalek | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Loren Hicks | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Hakim Sheriff | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Embedded Systems Developer |
| Blake Hamilton | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Administrative Services Management |
| Kevin Krisa | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Hydronic Heating Inside Sales |
| Winston Neutel | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Writer |
| Alain Lamontagne | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Retired |
| David Cherniak | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Producer |
| Lény Painchaud | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Labourer |
| Tetia Bayoro | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Logistics Manager |
| Elliot Wand | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Merchandiser |
| Jaël Champagne Gareau | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Postdoctoral Researcher |
| Spencer Rocchi | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Gerrit Dogger | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Project Manager |
| Gregory Gillis | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Secondary School Teacher |
| Lanna Palsson | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Support Person |
| Patrick Strzalkowski | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Ecologist |
| Dante Camarena Jimenez | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Game Developer |
| Christopher Navarro-Canseco | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Student |
| Samuel Lafontaine | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Kerri Hildebrandt | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Engineer |
| Michael Skirzynski | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Business Development Manager |
| Krzysztof Krzywinski | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Student |
| Julie St-Amand | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Public Servant |
| Manon Marie Lili Desbiens | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Communications Manager |
| Trevor Holsworth | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Manager |
| Yogo Shimada | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Customer Support Agent |
| Roger Sherwood | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Research and Development Scientist |
| Artem Gudkov | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | IT Consultant |
| Pascal St-Amand | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Municipal Public Servant |
| Anthony Hamel | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Student |
| Sheri Oberman | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Demetrios Karavas | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | IT Manager |
| Benjamin Teichman | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Software Engineer |
| Zornitsa Halacheva | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Bookbinder |
| Wallace Richard Rowat | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Computer Consultant |
| Daniel Graham | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Porter |
| Joseph Maw | Independent | 1 | 0.0 | Painter |
| Ysack Dupont | Independent | 0 | 0.0 | Driver |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 3.0%
- Anglophone 89.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 7.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46