Riding profile

Kingston and the Islands

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Kingston and the Islands: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 62.8%
  • Conservative 23.1%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereKingston and the Islands 62.8%23.1%3.5%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +13.8 35.3% −12.2 4.8% −1.3 2.0% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +14.8 32.1% −9.0 10.6% −7.1 2.7% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kingston and the Islands, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mark Gerretsen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
32.4 pts
Turnout
71.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Gerretsen Elected Liberal 48,682 63.2 Parliamentarian
Bryan Paterson Conservative 23,592 30.6 Professor
Daria Juüdi-Hope NDP 3,648 4.7 Registered Nurse
Fintan Hartnett Green 1,071 1.4 Sailor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.4%
  • Anglophone 93.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46