Riding profile

Kingston and the Islands

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Kingston and the Islands: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Kingston and the Islands, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mark Gerretsen

Sits with Liberal

Since: 2025-04-28
Parliament: 45^th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 34.0
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Liberal 59.3%
Conservative 25.3%
NDP 5.2%
Green 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
HereKingston and the Islands	59.3%	25.3%	5.2%	1.9%
Provincial averageOntario	45.6% +13.6	37.5% −12.2	6.4% −1.2	1.6% +0.2
National averageCanada	41.9% +17.4	34.8% −9.5	14.2% −9.0	2.1% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by

Liberal

Margin

32.4 pts

Turnout

71.7%

Margin shift vs current projection

+1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Mark Gerretsen Elected	Liberal	48,682	63.2	Parliamentarian
Bryan Paterson	Conservative	23,592	30.6	Professor
Daria Juüdi-Hope	NDP	3,648	4.7	Registered Nurse
Fintan Hartnett	Green	1,071	1.4	Sailor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

Francophone 1.4%
Anglophone 93.0%
Non-francophone (other) 5.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: fed_46