Riding profile
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes
The question
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 90%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 90%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLeeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes | 44.1% | 41.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −5.0 | 35.3% +6.3 | 4.8% −2.1 | 2.0% |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −3.9 | 32.1% +9.4 | 10.6% −7.9 | 2.7% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
Michael Barrett
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Barrett Elected | Conservative | 33,437 | 50.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Lorna Jean Edmonds | Liberal | 29,656 | 44.4 | Retired |
| Paul Lancione | NDP | 2,341 | 3.5 | Client Advisor |
| Randi Ramdeen | Green | 781 | 1.2 | Political Organizer |
| Hailey Simpson | PPC | 596 | 0.9 | Marketing Assistant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.9%
- Anglophone 98.0%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46