Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes

Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes	43.3%	40.6%	2.9%	2.5%
Provincial averageOntario	48.3%−5.1	34.5%+6.2	5.0%−2.1	2.3%+0.2
National averageCanada	46.8%−3.5	30.4%+10.2	11.2%−8.3	2.7%−0.2

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.9% English 98.0% Other languages 1.1%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Michael Barrett · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 5.6 points, with 73.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 2.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Michael Barrett Elected	Conservative	33,437	49.8	Parliamentarian
Lorna Jean Edmonds	Liberal	29,656	44.2	Retired
Paul Lancione	NDP	2,341	3.5	Client Advisor
Randi Ramdeen	Green	781	1.2	Political Organizer
Hailey Simpson	PPC	596	0.9	Marketing Assistant
Other candidates		359	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.