Riding profile

Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes

Federal riding — ON · Rural · ottawa region

The question

Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Michael Barrett

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
72%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.0%
  • Liberal 40.2%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereLeeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands--Rideau Lakes 44.0%40.2%4.1%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +6.5 45.6% −5.4 6.4% −2.3 1.6%
National averageCanada 34.8% +9.2 41.9% −1.7 14.2% −10.1 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.6 pts
Turnout
73.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Barrett Elected Conservative 33,437 50.0 Parliamentarian
Lorna Jean Edmonds Liberal 29,656 44.4 Retired
Paul Lancione NDP 2,341 3.5 Client Advisor
Randi Ramdeen Green 781 1.2 Political Organizer
Hailey Simpson PPC 596 0.9 Marketing Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.9%
  • Anglophone 98.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46