Riding profile

Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
38%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.8%
  • Liberal 40.1%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • Green 2.0%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereHastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga 45.8%40.1%2.7%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +10.5 49.1% −9.0 4.8% −2.0 2.0% +0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +13.7 48.0% −7.9 10.6% −7.9 2.7% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Shelby Kramp-Neuman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.9 pts
Turnout
71.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shelby Kramp-Neuman Elected Conservative 36,005 54.3 Parliamentarian
Tracey Sweeney Schenk Liberal 26,745 40.4 Realtor
Ava Duffy NDP 2,351 3.5 Homemaker
Michael Holbrook Green 803 1.2 Contractor
Zaid Yusufani PPC 377 0.6 Psychotherapist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 98.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46