Riding profile

Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Hastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Shelby Kramp-Neuman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 48.2%
  • Liberal 36.2%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereHastings--Lennox and Addington--Tyendinaga 48.2%36.2%4.1%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +10.8 45.6% −9.4 6.4% −2.3 1.6% +0.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +13.4 41.9% −5.7 14.2% −10.1 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.9 pts
Turnout
71.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shelby Kramp-Neuman Elected Conservative 36,005 54.3 Parliamentarian
Tracey Sweeney Schenk Liberal 26,745 40.4 Realtor
Ava Duffy NDP 2,351 3.5 Homemaker
Michael Holbrook Green 803 1.2 Contractor
Zaid Yusufani PPC 377 0.6 Psychotherapist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 98.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46