Riding profile

Peterborough

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Peterborough: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Peterborough, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Emma Harrison

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.4%
  • Conservative 35.7%
  • NDP 4.8%
  • Green 1.3%
  • PPC 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HerePeterborough 50.4%35.7%4.8%1.3%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +4.8 37.5% −1.8 6.4% −1.6 1.6% −0.3
National averageCanada 41.9% +8.5 34.8% +0.9 14.2% −9.4 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
74.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma Harrison Elected Liberal 42,890 54.3 Farmer
Michelle Ferreri Conservative 32,446 41.0 Parliamentarian
Heather Ray NDP 2,406 3.0 Director of Operations
Jazmine Raine Green 655 0.8 PhD Student
Jami-Leigh McMaster PPC 272 0.3 Self-Employed
Chad Jewell Independent 222 0.3 Business Owner
Matthew Grove Other 168 0.2 Courier

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 97.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46