Riding profile

Peterborough

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Peterborough: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.0%
  • Conservative 33.5%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HerePeterborough 54.0%33.5%3.1%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +4.9 35.3% −1.8 4.8% −1.7 2.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.0 32.1% +1.4 10.6% −7.5 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Peterborough, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 34% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Emma Harrison

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
74.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma Harrison Elected Liberal 42,890 54.3 Farmer
Michelle Ferreri Conservative 32,446 41.0 Parliamentarian
Heather Ray NDP 2,406 3.0 Director of Operations
Jazmine Raine Green 655 0.8 PhD Student
Jami-Leigh McMaster PPC 272 0.3 Self-Employed
Chad Jewell Independent 222 0.3 Business Owner
Matthew Grove Other 168 0.2 Courier

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 97.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46