Riding profile

Shefford

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Shefford: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
90%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 41.2%
  • Bloc 39.8%
  • Conservative 18.6%
  • NDP 4.8%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereShefford 41.2%39.8%18.6%4.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% −4.2 27.3% +12.5 24.8% −6.2 5.1% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −6.8 5.7% +34.1 32.1% −13.5 10.6% −5.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Shefford, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 41% vote share, against 40% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 3% anglophone.

Sitting member

Andréanne Larouche

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
0.8 pts
Turnout
70.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andréanne Larouche Elected Bloc 26,726 40.1 Parliamentarian
Felix Dionne Liberal 26,155 39.3 Businessman
James Seale Conservative 11,404 17.1 Accountant
Patrick Jasmin NDP 1,557 2.3 Communications Advisor
Susanne Lefebvre PPC 789 1.2 Organic Food Business

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 95.5%
  • Anglophone 2.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46