Riding profile

Shefford

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Shefford: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Shefford, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 40% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 3% anglophone.

Sitting member

Andréanne Larouche

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Toss-up

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
75%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 39.8%
  • Liberal 36.7%
  • Conservative 20.4%
  • NDP 6.7%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereShefford 39.8%36.7%20.4%6.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +12.6 40.7% −4.0 26.9% −6.5 7.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 6.1% +33.7 41.9% −5.2 34.8% −14.4 14.2% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
0.8 pts
Turnout
70.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andréanne Larouche Elected Bloc 26,726 40.1 Parliamentarian
Felix Dionne Liberal 26,155 39.3 Businessman
James Seale Conservative 11,404 17.1 Accountant
Patrick Jasmin NDP 1,557 2.3 Communications Advisor
Susanne Lefebvre PPC 789 1.2 Organic Food Business

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 95.5%
  • Anglophone 2.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46