Riding profile

Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.1%
  • Bloc 34.6%
  • Conservative 16.3%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereMont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie 49.1%34.6%16.3%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +3.7 27.3% +7.3 24.8% −8.6 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% +1.1 5.7% +28.9 32.1% −15.9 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 35% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 90% francophone, 6% anglophone.

Sitting member

Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
11.9 pts
Turnout
77.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba Elected Liberal 32,149 47.1 Communications Advisor
Noémie Rouillard Bloc 23,947 35.1 Lawyer
Nicolas Godin Conservative 9,335 13.7 Computer Scientist
Mirabelle Leins NDP 1,590 2.3 Student
Maria Korpijaakko Green 833 1.2 Copy Editor
Patrick Rochon PPC 397 0.6 Firefighter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 89.5%
  • Anglophone 5.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46