Riding profile

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.0%
  • Bloc 26.2%
  • Conservative 19.7%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • PPC 1.0%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereLongueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 51.0%26.2%19.7%3.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +5.6 27.3% −1.1 24.8% −5.1 5.1% −1.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +3.0 5.7% +20.5 32.1% −12.4 10.6% −6.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 26% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 76% francophone, 11% anglophone.

Sitting member

Sherry Romanado

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
22.3 pts
Turnout
63.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sherry Romanado Elected Liberal 25,138 49.4 Parliamentarian
Beritan Oerde Bloc 13,583 26.7 Translator
Terry Roberts Conservative 8,547 16.8 Business Development
Marie-Andrée Gravel NDP 2,832 5.6 Project Manager
Tiny Olinga PPC 411 0.8 Business Executive
Donald Gagnon Other 389 0.8 Entrepreneur

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 76.3%
  • Anglophone 11.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46