Riding profile

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 26% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 76% francophone, 11% anglophone.

Sitting member

Sherry Romanado

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.5%
  • Bloc 26.2%
  • Conservative 21.6%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereLongueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 46.5%26.2%21.6%5.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +5.8 27.3% −1.1 26.9% −5.3 7.0% −1.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +4.6 6.1% +20.1 34.8% −13.2 14.2% −8.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
22.3 pts
Turnout
63.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sherry Romanado Elected Liberal 25,138 49.4 Parliamentarian
Beritan Oerde Bloc 13,583 26.7 Translator
Terry Roberts Conservative 8,547 16.8 Business Development
Marie-Andrée Gravel NDP 2,832 5.6 Project Manager
Tiny Olinga PPC 411 0.8 Business Executive
Donald Gagnon Other 389 0.8 Entrepreneur

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 76.3%
  • Anglophone 11.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46