Byelection

Laurier--Sainte-Marie

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Laurier--Sainte-Marie: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

By-election — the next vote in this seat

By-election favourite

Liberal

100% · Probability

  • Seat vacant — writ pending
  • Steven Guilbeault is leaving
  • Mean margin (pts) : 30.0

Projected shares

Liberal 49.9%
NDP 17.2%
Bloc 15.8%
Conservative 12.8%
Green 3.6%

Why this differs from the map above

Both readings favour Liberal.

The projection below answers a general election: every seat voting at once. This one answers the by-election actually coming. By-election turnout is differential — it costs whichever side is demobilised, which is why the two can name different winners.

Full by-election desk →

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.1%
  • NDP 16.6%
  • Bloc 15.3%
  • Conservative 12.3%
  • Green 3.5%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Bloc Conservative
HereLaurier--Sainte-Marie 54.1%16.6%15.3%12.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +8.7 5.1% +11.5 27.3% −12.0 24.8% −12.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.1 10.6% +6.0 5.7% +9.6 32.1% −19.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Laurier--Sainte-Marie, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 17% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 71% francophone, 19% anglophone.

Sitting member

Steven Guilbeault

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
32.9 pts
Turnout
64.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steven Guilbeault Elected Liberal 27,286 52.1 Parliamentarian
Nimâ Machouf NDP 9,856 18.8 Epidemiologist
Emmanuel Lapierre Bloc 8,079 15.4 Professor
Mathieu Fournier Conservative 4,796 9.2 Administrative Assistant
Dylan Perceval-Maxwell Green 1,452 2.8 Landlord
Michel Labelle Other 269 0.5 Legal Advisor
Eugène Duplessis PPC 253 0.5 Program Technician
Chantal Poulin Other 195 0.4 Teacher
Adrien Welsh Other 115 0.2 Journalist
Simon-Pierre Lauzon Independent 62 0.1 Administrative Assistant
Dimitri Mourkes Independent 38 0.1 Circus Arts Producer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 70.9%
  • Anglophone 19.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46