Riding profile

Papineau

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Papineau: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Papineau, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 16% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 59% francophone, 12% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marjorie Michel

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.4%
  • Bloc 16.3%
  • NDP 16.0%
  • Conservative 15.5%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc NDP Conservative
HerePapineau 50.4%16.3%16.0%15.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +9.7 27.3% −10.9 7.0% +9.0 26.9% −11.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +8.5 6.1% +10.2 14.2% +1.8 34.8% −19.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
35.9 pts
Turnout
65.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marjorie Michel Elected Liberal 24,700 53.0 Politician
Sophy Forget Bélec Bloc 7,726 16.6 Coordinator
Niall Ricardo NDP 7,606 16.3 Jurist
Julio Rivera Conservative 4,927 10.6 Business Administration
Xavier Watso Other 676 1.5 Animator
Noah Cherney PPC 455 1.0 Political Science Student
Stéphane Doucet Other 321 0.7 Community Organizer
Garnet Colly Other 208 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 58.8%
  • Anglophone 12.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 28.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46