Riding profile

Papineau

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Papineau: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.9%
  • Bloc 16.3%
  • NDP 14.0%
  • Conservative 13.7%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc NDP Conservative
HerePapineau 54.9%16.3%14.0%13.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +9.5 27.3% −11.0 5.1% +9.0 24.8% −11.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.9 5.7% +10.6 10.6% +3.4 32.1% −18.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Papineau, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 16% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 59% francophone, 12% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marjorie Michel

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
35.9 pts
Turnout
65.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marjorie Michel Elected Liberal 24,700 53.0 Politician
Sophy Forget Bélec Bloc 7,726 16.6 Coordinator
Niall Ricardo NDP 7,606 16.3 Jurist
Julio Rivera Conservative 4,927 10.6 Business Administration
Xavier Watso Other 676 1.5 Animator
Noah Cherney PPC 455 1.0 Political Science Student
Stéphane Doucet Other 321 0.7 Community Organizer
Garnet Colly Other 208 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 58.8%
  • Anglophone 12.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 28.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46