Riding profile

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 66.5%
  • Conservative 23.4%
  • Bloc 7.0%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereSaint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 66.5%23.4%7.0%3.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +21.1 24.8% −1.4 27.3% −20.3 5.1% −1.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +18.5 32.1% −8.7 5.7% +1.3 10.6% −6.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 48% francophone, 17% anglophone.

Sitting member

Patricia Lattanzio

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
43.7 pts
Turnout
58.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patricia Lattanzio Elected Liberal 26,833 65.3 Parliamentarian
Panagiota Koroneos Conservative 8,457 20.6 Communications
Laurie Lelacheur Bloc 2,938 7.2 Student
Marwan El Attar NDP 2,450 6.0 Lawyer
Caroline Mailloux PPC 388 0.9 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 48.0%
  • Anglophone 17.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 34.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46