Byelection

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie: will Independent lose this seat to NDP?

By-election — the next vote in this seat

By-election favourite

Liberal

97% · Probability

  • Seat vacant — writ pending
  • Alexandre Boulerice is leaving
  • Mean margin (pts) : 11.6

Projected shares

Liberal 37.5%
Bloc 23.7%
NDP 23.1%
Conservative 10.3%
Green 5.1%

Why this differs from the map above

The general-election map still shows NDP. In the by-election the model favours Liberal.

The projection below answers a general election: every seat voting at once. This one answers the by-election actually coming. By-election turnout is differential — it costs whichever side is demobilised, which is why the two can name different winners.

Full by-election desk →

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 42.9%
  • Liberal 33.8%
  • Bloc 18.0%
  • Conservative 10.0%
  • Green 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Liberal Bloc Conservative
HereRosemont--La Petite-Patrie 42.9%33.8%18.0%10.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 5.1% +37.9 45.4% −11.6 27.3% −9.3 24.8% −14.8
National averageCanada 10.6% +32.3 48.0% −14.2 5.7% +12.3 32.1% −22.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 34% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 84% francophone, 8% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alexandre Boulerice

Sits with Independent

Elected as NDP · party_changeon2026-04-27

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
9.3 pts
Turnout
72.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexandre Boulerice Elected NDP 24,358 41.0 Parliamentarian
Jean-Sébastien Vallée Liberal 18,757 31.6 Director of Education and Communications
Olivier Gignac Bloc 10,864 18.3 Management Consultant
Laetitia Tchatat Conservative 4,073 6.9 Public Relations Consultant
Benoît Morham Green 1,368 2.3 Science Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 83.7%
  • Anglophone 7.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 8.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46