Riding profile

Outremont

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Outremont: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Outremont, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 42-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 17% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 55% francophone, 25% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rachel Bendayan

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.6%
  • Conservative 17.5%
  • Bloc 11.8%
  • Green 10.1%
  • NDP 9.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc Green
HereOutremont 52.6%17.5%11.8%10.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +11.9 26.9% −9.4 27.3% −15.5 1.5% +8.6
National averageCanada 41.9% +10.7 34.8% −17.3 6.1% +5.7 2.1% +8.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
42.1 pts
Turnout
62.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachel Bendayan Elected Liberal 26,024 55.2 Parliamentarian
Ronan Reich Conservative 5,911 12.5 Unemployed
Rémi Lebeuf Bloc 5,644 12.0 Parliamentary Assistant
Ève Péclet NDP 5,024 10.7 Lawyer
Jonathan Pedneault Green 4,539 9.6 Co-Party Leader

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 54.9%
  • Anglophone 24.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46