Riding profile

Mount Royal

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Mount Royal: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.9%
  • Conservative 43.1%
  • NDP 3.6%
  • Bloc 3.4%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc
HereMount Royal 52.9%43.1%3.6%3.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +7.6 24.8% +18.3 5.1% −1.4 27.3% −23.9
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.9 32.1% +11.0 10.6% −7.0 5.7% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mount Royal, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 26% francophone, 47% anglophone.

Sitting member

Anthony Housefather

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
10.4 pts
Turnout
65.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anthony Housefather Elected Liberal 25,544 51.1 Parliamentarian
Neil Oberman Conservative 20,244 40.5 Lawyer
Adam Frank NDP 2,353 4.7 Professor
Yegor Komarov Bloc 1,671 3.3 Parliamentary Assistant
Diane Johnston Other 216 0.4 Journalist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 25.8%
  • Anglophone 46.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 27.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46