Riding profile

Mount Royal

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Mount Royal: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mount Royal, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 45% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 26% francophone, 47% anglophone.

Sitting member

Anthony Housefather

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.5%
  • Conservative 45.0%
  • NDP 5.6%
  • Bloc 3.4%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc
HereMount Royal 48.5%45.0%5.6%3.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +7.8 26.9% +18.1 7.0% −1.4 27.3% −23.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +6.6 34.8% +10.2 14.2% −8.6 6.1% −2.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
10.4 pts
Turnout
65.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anthony Housefather Elected Liberal 25,544 51.1 Parliamentarian
Neil Oberman Conservative 20,244 40.5 Lawyer
Adam Frank NDP 2,353 4.7 Professor
Yegor Komarov Bloc 1,671 3.3 Parliamentary Assistant
Diane Johnston Other 216 0.4 Journalist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 25.8%
  • Anglophone 46.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 27.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46