Riding profile

Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.2%
  • Conservative 23.7%
  • Bloc 12.4%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereDorval--Lachine--LaSalle 61.2%23.7%12.4%3.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +15.8 24.8% −1.1 27.3% −14.9 5.1% −1.6
National averageCanada 48.0% +13.2 32.1% −8.4 5.7% +6.7 10.6% −7.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 41% francophone, 39% anglophone.

Sitting member

Anju Dhillon

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
38.2 pts
Turnout
63.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anju Dhillon Elected Liberal 29,927 59.4 Lawyer
Alioune Sarr Conservative 10,428 20.7 Director of Finance
Pauline Fleur Julie Postel Bloc 6,338 12.6 Orderly
Angélique Soleil Lavoie NDP 2,104 4.2 Teacher
Amir Badr Eldeen Green 823 1.6 Student
Michael Patterson PPC 478 0.9 Senior Communications Advisor
André Lavigne Other 251 0.5 Retired
Katy Le Rougetel Independent 71 0.1 General Labour - Production

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 40.8%
  • Anglophone 39.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46