Riding profile

Saint-Laurent

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Saint-Laurent: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Saint-Laurent, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 35% francophone, 27% anglophone.

Sitting member

Emmanuella Lambropoulos

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 56.2%
  • Conservative 32.9%
  • Bloc 5.7%
  • NDP 5.5%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereSaint-Laurent 56.2%32.9%5.7%5.5%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +15.4 26.9% +6.0 27.3% −21.6 7.0% −1.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +14.3 34.8% −1.9 6.1% −0.4 14.2% −8.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
30.2 pts
Turnout
60.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emmanuella Lambropoulos Elected Liberal 26,021 58.9 Parliamentarian
Richard Serour Conservative 12,477 28.2 Immigration Consultant
Marielle Gendron Bloc 2,523 5.7 Teacher
Ryan Byrne NDP 1,985 4.5 Communications Coordinator
Richard Chambers Green 693 1.6 Retired
Manon Chevalier PPC 349 0.8 Engineer
Fernand Deschamps Other 137 0.3 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 35.1%
  • Anglophone 27.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 37.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46