Riding profile

Ahuntsic-Cartierville

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Ahuntsic-Cartierville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
44.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 62.5%
  • Conservative 18.0%
  • Bloc 16.6%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereAhuntsic-Cartierville 62.5%18.0%16.6%4.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +17.1 24.8% −6.8 27.3% −10.7 5.1% −1.0
National averageCanada 48.0% +14.5 32.1% −14.1 5.7% +10.9 10.6% −6.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ahuntsic-Cartierville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 18% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 64% francophone, 12% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mélanie Joly

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
43.3 pts
Turnout
67.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mélanie Joly Elected Liberal 30,833 61.0 Parliamentarian
Nabila Ben Youssef Bloc 8,538 16.9 Artist
Margie Ramos Conservative 7,600 15.0 Account Manager
Idil Issa NDP 3,333 6.6 Law Student
Linda Sullivan Other 273 0.5 Administrative Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 64.0%
  • Anglophone 12.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 23.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46