Riding profile

Bourassa

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Bourassa: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 59.7%
  • Conservative 19.1%
  • Bloc 16.7%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereBourassa 59.7%19.1%16.7%3.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +14.3 24.8% −5.7 27.3% −10.6 5.1% −1.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +11.7 32.1% −13.0 5.7% +11.0 10.6% −6.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bourassa, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 19% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 66% francophone, 9% anglophone.

Sitting member

Abdelhaq Sari

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
40.4 pts
Turnout
56.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Abdelhaq Sari Elected Liberal 21,198 58.6 City Councillor
Jency Mercier Bloc 6,206 17.1 Borough Inspector
Néhémie Dumay Conservative 5,905 16.3 Federal Immigration Officer
Catherine Gauvin NDP 2,137 5.9 Senior Nursing Advisor
Jean-Marc Lamothe PPC 433 1.2 Real Estate Broker
Philippe Tessier Independent 183 0.5 Conductor
Dominique Théberge Other 140 0.4 Medical Technologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 66.1%
  • Anglophone 8.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 25.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46