Riding profile

Alfred-Pellan

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Alfred-Pellan: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 56.3%
  • Conservative 23.9%
  • Bloc 20.0%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereAlfred-Pellan 56.3%23.9%20.0%3.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +10.9 24.8% −0.9 27.3% −7.3 5.1% −1.8
National averageCanada 48.0% +8.3 32.1% −8.2 5.7% +14.3 10.6% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Alfred-Pellan, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 71% francophone, 16% anglophone.

Sitting member

Angelo Iacono

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
33.0 pts
Turnout
69.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Angelo Iacono Elected Liberal 32,934 54.6 Parliamentarian
Louis Ialenti Conservative 12,671 21.0 Sales Manager
Isabel Dion Bloc 12,259 20.3 Social Worker
Jordan Larochelle NDP 2,044 3.4 Self-Employed
Ludovic Mbany PPC 423 0.7 Computer Scientist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 70.9%
  • Anglophone 16.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46