Riding profile

Alfred-Pellan

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Alfred-Pellan: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Alfred-Pellan, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 26% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 71% francophone, 16% anglophone.

Sitting member

Angelo Iacono

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.8%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Bloc 20.0%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • PPC 0.8%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereAlfred-Pellan 51.8%25.8%20.0%5.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +11.1 26.9% −1.2 27.3% −7.3 7.0% −1.8
National averageCanada 41.9% +9.9 34.8% −9.0 6.1% +13.9 14.2% −9.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
33.0 pts
Turnout
69.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Angelo Iacono Elected Liberal 32,934 54.6 Parliamentarian
Louis Ialenti Conservative 12,671 21.0 Sales Manager
Isabel Dion Bloc 12,259 20.3 Social Worker
Jordan Larochelle NDP 2,044 3.4 Self-Employed
Ludovic Mbany PPC 423 0.7 Computer Scientist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 70.9%
  • Anglophone 16.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46