Riding profile

Honoré-Mercier

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Honoré-Mercier: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.8%
  • Conservative 24.4%
  • Bloc 12.7%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereHonoré-Mercier 61.8%24.4%12.7%3.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +16.4 24.8% −0.4 27.3% −14.6 5.1% −1.7
National averageCanada 48.0% +13.8 32.1% −7.7 5.7% +7.0 10.6% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Honoré-Mercier, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 60% francophone, 21% anglophone.

Sitting member

Eric St-Pierre

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
38.0 pts
Turnout
65.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric St-Pierre Elected Liberal 29,947 60.2 Lawyer
Ingrid Fernanda Megni Conservative 10,692 21.5 Purchasing Specialist
Edline Henri Bloc 6,435 12.9 Social Worker
Djaouida Sellah NDP 1,787 3.6 Student
Gaëtan Bérard Green 568 1.1 Sales Representative
Marie-Louise Beauchamp PPC 351 0.7 Lawyer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 60.1%
  • Anglophone 21.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46