Riding profile

La Pointe-de-l'Île

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

La Pointe-de-l'Île: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Bloc

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
79%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 42.3%
  • Liberal 39.6%
  • Conservative 15.4%
  • NDP 6.7%
  • Green 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereLa Pointe-de-l'Île 42.3%39.6%15.4%6.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +15.0 45.4% −5.8 24.8% −9.4 5.1% +1.6
National averageCanada 5.7% +36.6 48.0% −8.4 32.1% −16.7 10.6% −3.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

La Pointe-de-l'Île, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 42% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 87% francophone, 4% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mario Beaulieu

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
5.3 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mario Beaulieu Elected Bloc 22,940 43.1 Educator
Viviane Minko Liberal 20,051 37.7 Human Resources Administrative Assistant
Violetta Potapova Conservative 6,781 12.7 Marketing Manager
Ghada Chaabi NDP 2,279 4.3 Daycare Operator
Olivier Huard Green 977 1.8 Arborist
Geneviève Royer Other 181 0.3 Special Education Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 87.3%
  • Anglophone 3.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 8.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46