La Pointe-de-l'Île

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Bloc	Liberal	Conservative	NDP
La Pointe-de-l'Île	42.3%	37.5%	14.7%	7.0%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+15.1	43.3%−5.8	24.1%−9.5	5.4%+1.6
National averageCanada	6.1%+36.2	46.8%−9.3	30.4%−15.7	11.2%−4.2

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 87.3% English 3.9% Other languages 8.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Mario Beaulieu · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Bloc Québécois won by 5.3 points, with 65.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 5.0 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Mario Beaulieu Elected	Bloc	22,940	42.3	Educator
Viviane Minko	Liberal	20,051	37.0	Human Resources Administrative Assistant
Violetta Potapova	Conservative	6,781	12.5	Marketing Manager
Ghada Chaabi	NDP	2,279	4.2	Daycare Operator
Olivier Huard	Green	977	1.8	Arborist
Geneviève Royer	Other	181	0.3	Special Education Teacher
Other candidates		984	1.8

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.