Riding profile

Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 27% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 81% francophone, 7% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marie-Gabrielle Ménard

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 43.6%
  • Bloc 26.8%
  • Conservative 15.5%
  • NDP 12.0%
  • Green 3.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereHochelaga--Rosemont-Est 43.6%26.8%15.5%12.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +2.8 27.3% −0.5 26.9% −11.4 7.0% +5.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +1.7 6.1% +20.7 34.8% −19.3 14.2% −2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
18.7 pts
Turnout
65.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Gabrielle Ménard Elected Liberal 23,601 46.1 Radio Broadcaster
Rose Lessard Bloc 13,902 27.2 Teacher
Julie Girard-Lemay NDP 6,671 13.0 Lawyer
Carl Belley Conservative 5,402 10.6 Maritime Pilot
Jacob Pirro Green 1,329 2.6 Community Worker
Christine Dandenault Other 242 0.5 Administrative Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 81.4%
  • Anglophone 6.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46