Riding profile
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est
The question
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHochelaga--Rosemont-Est | 48.0% | 26.8% | 13.7% | 10.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% +2.6 | 27.3% −0.5 | 24.8% −11.2 | 5.1% +5.0 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% | 5.7% +21.1 | 32.1% −18.5 | 10.6% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 27% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 81% francophone, 7% anglophone.
Sitting member
Marie-Gabrielle Ménard
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Gabrielle Ménard Elected | Liberal | 23,601 | 46.1 | Radio Broadcaster |
| Rose Lessard | Bloc | 13,902 | 27.2 | Teacher |
| Julie Girard-Lemay | NDP | 6,671 | 13.0 | Lawyer |
| Carl Belley | Conservative | 5,402 | 10.6 | Maritime Pilot |
| Jacob Pirro | Green | 1,329 | 2.6 | Community Worker |
| Christine Dandenault | Other | 242 | 0.5 | Administrative Assistant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 81.4%
- Anglophone 6.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 11.7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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