Riding profile

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 39% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 86% francophone, 5% anglophone.

Sitting member

Natilien Joseph

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Toss-up

Probability
58%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
93%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 38.9%
  • Liberal 38.3%
  • Conservative 18.8%
  • NDP 5.6%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereLongueuil--Saint-Hubert 38.9%38.3%18.8%5.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +11.7 40.7% −2.4 26.9% −8.1 7.0% −1.4
National averageCanada 6.1% +32.8 41.9% −3.6 34.8% −16.0 14.2% −8.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
1.3 pts
Turnout
69.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Natilien Joseph Elected Liberal 24,237 41.0 Real Estate Broker
Denis Trudel Bloc 23,468 39.7 Parliamentarian
Martine Boucher Conservative 8,447 14.3 Educator
Nesrine Benhadj NDP 2,986 5.0 Project Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 85.9%
  • Anglophone 4.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46