Riding profile
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert
The question
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 92%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 66%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLongueuil--Saint-Hubert | 42.8% | 38.9% | 16.9% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% −2.6 | 27.3% +11.6 | 24.8% −7.9 | 5.1% −1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −5.2 | 5.7% +33.2 | 32.1% −15.2 | 10.6% −6.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 39% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 86% francophone, 5% anglophone.
Sitting member
Natilien Joseph
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natilien Joseph Elected | Liberal | 24,237 | 41.0 | Real Estate Broker |
| Denis Trudel | Bloc | 23,468 | 39.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Martine Boucher | Conservative | 8,447 | 14.3 | Educator |
| Nesrine Benhadj | NDP | 2,986 | 5.0 | Project Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 85.9%
- Anglophone 4.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 9.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46