Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | 40.7% | 38.9% | 16.2% | 4.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.3%−2.6 | 27.3%+11.6 | 24.1%−7.9 | 5.4%−1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 46.8%−6.1 | 6.1%+32.8 | 30.4%−14.2 | 11.2%−7.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Natilien Joseph · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 1.3 points, with 69.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natilien Joseph Elected | Liberal | 24,237 | 40.2 | Real Estate Broker |
| Denis Trudel | Bloc | 23,468 | 38.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Martine Boucher | Conservative | 8,447 | 14.0 | Educator |
| Nesrine Benhadj | NDP | 2,986 | 5.0 | Project Manager |
| Other candidates | 1,168 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Liberal, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
- Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Liberal, safe seat
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated