Riding profile
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs
The question
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 43.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVille-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs | 65.6% | 21.8% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% +20.2 | 24.8% −3.0 | 27.3% −18.4 | 5.1% −1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +17.6 | 32.1% −10.3 | 5.7% +3.2 | 10.6% −6.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 41% francophone, 36% anglophone.
Sitting member
Marc Miller
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Miller Elected | Liberal | 30,905 | 63.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Shanahan | Conservative | 9,113 | 18.8 | Consultant |
| Kevin Majaducon | Bloc | 4,364 | 9.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Suzanne Dufresne | NDP | 2,932 | 6.0 | Retired |
| Nathe Perrone | Green | 996 | 2.1 | Community Worker |
| Giovanni Di Placido | Other | 209 | 0.4 | Entrepreneur |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 41.1%
- Anglophone 35.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 23.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46