Riding profile

Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs

Federal riding — QC · Rural · fed qc

The question

Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 65.6%
  • Conservative 21.8%
  • Bloc 8.9%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • Green 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereVille-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 65.6%21.8%8.9%4.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +20.2 24.8% −3.0 27.3% −18.4 5.1% −1.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +17.6 32.1% −10.3 5.7% +3.2 10.6% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 41% francophone, 36% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marc Miller

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
44.4 pts
Turnout
59.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marc Miller Elected Liberal 30,905 63.7 Parliamentarian
Steve Shanahan Conservative 9,113 18.8 Consultant
Kevin Majaducon Bloc 4,364 9.0 Parliamentarian
Suzanne Dufresne NDP 2,932 6.0 Retired
Nathe Perrone Green 996 2.1 Community Worker
Giovanni Di Placido Other 209 0.4 Entrepreneur

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 41.1%
  • Anglophone 35.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 23.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46