Riding profile

LaSalle--Émard--Verdun

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

LaSalle--Émard--Verdun: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.8%
  • Bloc 21.0%
  • Conservative 16.9%
  • NDP 7.4%
  • Green 3.1%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereLaSalle--Émard--Verdun 52.8%21.0%16.9%7.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +7.4 27.3% −6.3 24.8% −7.9 5.1% +2.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.8 5.7% +15.3 32.1% −15.2 10.6% −3.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

LaSalle--Émard--Verdun, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 21% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 59% francophone, 28% anglophone.

Sitting member

Claude Guay

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
29.2 pts
Turnout
66.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claude Guay Elected Liberal 27,439 50.9 Engineer
Louis-Philippe Sauvé Bloc 11,467 21.3 Parliamentarian
Zsolt Fischer Conservative 7,456 13.8 Real Estate Broker
Craig Sauvé NDP 5,587 10.4 City Councillor
Bisma Ansari Green 1,298 2.4 Business Executive
Gregory Yablunovsky PPC 260 0.5 Retired
Frédéric Dénommé Other 169 0.3 Computer Programmer
Manuel Johnson Other 136 0.3 Lawyer
Normand Chouinard Other 81 0.2 Truck Driver
Fang Hu Other 60 0.1 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 58.5%
  • Anglophone 27.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 13.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46