Riding profile

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 66.2%
  • Conservative 22.7%
  • Bloc 4.9%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • Green 3.2%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereNotre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 66.2%22.7%4.9%4.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +20.8 24.8% −2.1 27.3% −22.4 5.1% −0.8
National averageCanada 48.0% +18.2 32.1% −9.4 5.7% −0.8 10.6% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 28% francophone, 55% anglophone.

Sitting member

Anna Gainey

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
43.9 pts
Turnout
67.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna Gainey Elected Liberal 34,226 64.0 Parliamentarian
Neil Drabkin Conservative 10,517 19.7 Lawyer
Malcolm Lewis-Richmond NDP 3,956 7.4 Senior Officer Political Action and Mobilization
Félix-Antoine Brault Bloc 2,652 5.0 Specialized French Tutor
Arnold Downey Green 1,331 2.5 Chemist
Alex Trainman Montagano Independent 264 0.5 General Contractor
Marc Perez PPC 256 0.5 Digital Marketer
Rachel Hoffman Other 162 0.3 Graphic Designer
Stephen Hensley Other 126 0.2 CPQ Technician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 27.5%
  • Anglophone 54.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 17.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46