Riding profile

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 26% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 74% francophone, 12% anglophone.

Sitting member

Carlos Leitão

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.1%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Bloc 23.6%
  • NDP 5.3%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereMarc-Aurèle-Fortin 50.1%25.8%23.6%5.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +9.4 26.9% −1.1 27.3% −3.7 7.0% −1.7
National averageCanada 41.9% +8.2 34.8% −9.0 6.1% +17.5 14.2% −8.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
28.4 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carlos Leitão Elected Liberal 29,928 52.0 Economist
Claude Tousignant Bloc 13,584 23.6 Teacher
Janina Moran Conservative 11,923 20.7 Immigration Consultant
Alexandrah Cardona-Fortin NDP 2,128 3.7 Floor Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 74.4%
  • Anglophone 11.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 13.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46