Riding profile

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.6%
  • Conservative 23.9%
  • Bloc 23.6%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereMarc-Aurèle-Fortin 54.6%23.9%23.6%3.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +9.2 24.8% −0.9 27.3% −3.7 5.1% −1.7
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.6 32.1% −8.2 5.7% +17.9 10.6% −7.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 74% francophone, 12% anglophone.

Sitting member

Carlos Leitão

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
28.4 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Carlos Leitão Elected Liberal 29,928 52.0 Economist
Claude Tousignant Bloc 13,584 23.6 Teacher
Janina Moran Conservative 11,923 20.7 Immigration Consultant
Alexandrah Cardona-Fortin NDP 2,128 3.7 Floor Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 74.4%
  • Anglophone 11.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 13.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46