Riding profile

Laval--Les Îles

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Laval--Les Îles: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.3%
  • Conservative 35.5%
  • Bloc 14.6%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereLaval--Les Îles 52.3%35.5%14.6%3.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +6.9 24.8% +10.7 27.3% −12.7 5.1% −1.7
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.3 32.1% +3.4 5.7% +8.9 10.6% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Laval--Les Îles, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 51% francophone, 23% anglophone.

Sitting member

Fayçal El-Khoury

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
17.3 pts
Turnout
66.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fayçal El-Khoury Elected Liberal 28,302 49.7 Parliamentarian
Konstantinos Merakos Conservative 18,355 32.2 Lawyer
Catherine Dansereau-Redhead Bloc 8,298 14.6 Teacher
Étienne Loiselle-Schiettekatte NDP 1,961 3.4 Community Relations Coordinator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 51.1%
  • Anglophone 23.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 25.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46