Riding profile

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.6%
  • Bloc 32.4%
  • Conservative 20.4%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereRivière-des-Mille-Îles 47.6%32.4%20.4%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +2.2 27.3% +5.1 24.8% −4.4 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.4 5.7% +26.7 32.1% −11.7 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 84% francophone, 9% anglophone.

Sitting member

Linda Lapointe

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
12.6 pts
Turnout
71.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Linda Lapointe Elected Liberal 27,326 45.6 Parliamentarian
Luc Desilets Bloc 19,669 32.8 School Principal
Elia Lopez Conservative 10,398 17.4 Public Affairs Consultant
Joseph Hakizimana NDP 1,270 2.1 Manager
Alec Ware Green 734 1.2 Nurse
David Santamaria Quiceno PPC 306 0.5 Strategic Consultant
Michel Genois Independent 184 0.3 Business Development Consultant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 83.8%
  • Anglophone 9.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 7.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46