Mirabel
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirabel | 39.3% | 33.3% | 23.7% | 5.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+12.0 | 43.3%−10.0 | 24.1%−0.4 | 5.4%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 6.1%+33.2 | 46.8%−13.5 | 30.4%−6.7 | 11.2%−6.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jean-Denis Garon · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 6.5 points, with 69.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 6.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Denis Garon Elected | Bloc | 22,494 | 39.3 | Professor |
| Robert Fleming | Liberal | 18,796 | 32.8 | Political Attaché |
| Serge Dubord | Conservative | 12,544 | 21.9 | Correctional Officer |
| Albert Batten | NDP | 1,333 | 2.3 | Union Officer |
| Mario Guay | Green | 792 | 1.4 | Construction Contractor |
| Christian Montpetit | PPC | 400 | 0.7 | Real Estate Portfolio Manager |
| Other candidates | 892 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Laval—Les Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Thérèse-De Blainville Liberal, safe seat
- Vaudreuil Liberal, safe seat
- Pierrefonds—Dollard Liberal, safe seat
- Rivière-du-Nord Bloc, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated