Riding profile

Mirabel

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Mirabel: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Bloc

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
66%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 39.3%
  • Liberal 35.4%
  • Conservative 24.4%
  • NDP 4.8%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereMirabel 39.3%35.4%24.4%4.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +12.0 45.4% −10.0 24.8% −0.4 5.1% −0.3
National averageCanada 5.7% +33.6 48.0% −12.6 32.1% −7.7 10.6% −5.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mirabel, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 39% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 94% francophone, 4% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jean-Denis Garon

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
6.5 pts
Turnout
69.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Denis Garon Elected Bloc 22,494 39.9 Professor
Robert Fleming Liberal 18,796 33.4 Political Attaché
Serge Dubord Conservative 12,544 22.3 Correctional Officer
Albert Batten NDP 1,333 2.4 Union Officer
Mario Guay Green 792 1.4 Construction Contractor
Christian Montpetit PPC 400 0.7 Real Estate Portfolio Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 94.0%
  • Anglophone 3.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46