Riding profile

Rivière-du-Nord

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Rivière-du-Nord: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 43.3%
  • Liberal 33.5%
  • Conservative 22.3%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereRivière-du-Nord 43.3%33.5%22.3%5.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +16.0 45.4% −11.9 24.8% −2.5 5.1% +0.8
National averageCanada 5.7% +37.6 48.0% −14.5 32.1% −9.8 10.6% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rivière-du-Nord, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 43% vote share, against 33% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rhéal Éloi Fortin

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
11.9 pts
Turnout
63.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rhéal Fortin Elected Bloc 25,438 43.8 Parliamentarian
Mary-Helen Walton Liberal 18,345 31.6 Marketing Agency CEO
Patricia Morrissette Conservative 12,203 21.0 Administrative Agent
Christel Marchand NDP 2,032 3.5 Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.6%
  • Anglophone 1.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46