Riding profile
Les Pays-d'en-Haut
The question
Les Pays-d'en-Haut: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.4
- P(close race)
- 19%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLes Pays-d'en-Haut | 43.1% | 35.7% | 20.3% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% −2.3 | 27.3% +8.4 | 24.8% −4.5 | 5.1% −2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −4.9 | 5.7% +30.0 | 32.1% −11.8 | 10.6% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Les Pays-d'en-Haut, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 36% for the Bloc Québécois, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 93% francophone, 7% anglophone.
Sitting member
Tim Watchorn
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Watchorn Elected | Liberal | 26,967 | 41.0 | Engineer |
| Ariane Charbonneau | Bloc | 23,750 | 36.1 | Lawyer |
| Vincent Leroux | Conservative | 11,816 | 18.0 | Engineer |
| Eric-Abel Baland | NDP | 1,493 | 2.3 | Retired Cultural and Artistic Manager |
| Karine Steinberger | Green | 1,038 | 1.6 | Tattoo Artist |
| George Mogiljansky | PPC | 639 | 1.0 | Retired Medical Technologist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 92.7%
- Anglophone 6.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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