Riding profile

Les Pays-d'en-Haut

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Les Pays-d'en-Haut: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Les Pays-d'en-Haut, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 36% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 93% francophone, 7% anglophone.

Sitting member

Tim Watchorn

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
86%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 38.7%
  • Bloc 35.7%
  • Conservative 22.2%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereLes Pays-d'en-Haut 38.7%35.7%22.2%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% −2.1 27.3% +8.4 26.9% −4.7 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 41.9% −3.2 6.1% +29.6 34.8% −12.6 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
4.8 pts
Turnout
69.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tim Watchorn Elected Liberal 26,967 41.0 Engineer
Ariane Charbonneau Bloc 23,750 36.1 Lawyer
Vincent Leroux Conservative 11,816 18.0 Engineer
Eric-Abel Baland NDP 1,493 2.3 Retired Cultural and Artistic Manager
Karine Steinberger Green 1,038 1.6 Tattoo Artist
George Mogiljansky PPC 639 1.0 Retired Medical Technologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 92.7%
  • Anglophone 6.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46