Riding profile

Montcalm

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Montcalm: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Montcalm, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 26% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Luc Thériault

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 46.0%
  • Conservative 26.3%
  • Liberal 24.5%
  • NDP 7.6%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP
HereMontcalm 46.0%26.3%24.5%7.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.7 26.9% −0.6 40.7% −16.2 7.0% +0.6
National averageCanada 6.1% +39.9 34.8% −8.5 41.9% −17.4 14.2% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
19.2 pts
Turnout
63.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luc Thériault Elected Bloc 27,268 46.6 Parliamentarian
Fatima Badran Liberal 15,769 26.9 Political Attaché
Jean-Sébastien Lepage Conservative 13,589 23.2 Computer Scientist
Denis Perreault NDP 1,893 3.2 City Bus Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.8%
  • Anglophone 1.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46