Riding profile

Montcalm

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Montcalm: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 46.0%
  • Liberal 29.0%
  • Conservative 24.5%
  • NDP 5.6%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereMontcalm 46.0%29.0%24.5%5.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.7 45.4% −16.4 24.8% −0.3 5.1% +0.6
National averageCanada 5.7% +40.3 48.0% −19.0 32.1% −7.6 10.6% −5.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Montcalm, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 29% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Luc Thériault

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
19.2 pts
Turnout
63.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luc Thériault Elected Bloc 27,268 46.6 Parliamentarian
Fatima Badran Liberal 15,769 26.9 Political Attaché
Jean-Sébastien Lepage Conservative 13,589 23.2 Computer Scientist
Denis Perreault NDP 1,893 3.2 City Bus Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.8%
  • Anglophone 1.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46