Riding profile

Terrebonne

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Terrebonne: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
65%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.2%
  • Bloc 46.3%
  • Conservative 7.2%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.2%
  • PPC 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereTerrebonne 50.2%46.3%7.2%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +4.8 27.3% +19.0 24.8% −17.6 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +2.2 5.7% +40.6 32.1% −24.9 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Terrebonne, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 46% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 92% francophone, 4% anglophone.

Sitting member

Tatiana Auguste

Sits with Liberal

Since
2026-04-13
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
0.0 pts
Turnout
67.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tatiana Auguste Elected Liberal 23,352 38.7 Political Attaché
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné Bloc 23,351 38.7 Economist
Adrienne Charles Conservative 10,961 18.2 Teacher
Maxime Beaudoin NDP 1,556 2.6 Union Advisor
Benjamin Rankin Green 630 1.0 Architect
Maria Cantore PPC 428 0.7 Fashion Designer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 92.4%
  • Anglophone 3.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46