Riding profile

Thérèse-De Blainville

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Thérèse-De Blainville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.7%
  • Bloc 31.8%
  • Conservative 21.1%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereThérèse-De Blainville 47.7%31.8%21.1%3.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +2.3 27.3% +4.5 24.8% −3.7 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.3 5.7% +26.1 32.1% −11.0 10.6% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Thérèse-De Blainville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 90% francophone, 6% anglophone.

Sitting member

Madeleine Chenette

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.3 pts
Turnout
72.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Madeleine Chenette Elected Liberal 29,519 45.8 Diplomat
Marie-Noëlle Closson-Duquette Bloc 20,828 32.3 Lawyer
Julie Bergeron Conservative 12,019 18.7 Lawyer
Michel Lacroix NDP 1,585 2.5 College Professor
Chantal Lavoie PPC 446 0.7 Administrative Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 89.7%
  • Anglophone 5.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46