Riding profile

Vimy

Federal riding — QC · Rural · fed qc

The question

Vimy: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.8%
  • Conservative 27.4%
  • Bloc 16.8%
  • NDP 3.6%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereVimy 54.8%27.4%16.8%3.6%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +9.4 24.8% +2.6 27.3% −10.5 5.1% −1.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.8 32.1% −4.7 5.7% +11.1 10.6% −7.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vimy, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 61% francophone, 13% anglophone.

Sitting member

Annie Koutrakis

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
28.0 pts
Turnout
60.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Annie Koutrakis Elected Liberal 26,531 53.4 Parliamentarian
Grace Daou Conservative 12,278 24.7 Biochemist
Alicia Parenteau-Malakhanian Bloc 8,526 17.2 Aesthetician
Cindy Mercer NDP 2,342 4.7 Dental Hygienist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 61.3%
  • Anglophone 13.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 25.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46