Riding profile

Repentigny

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Repentigny: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Bloc

Toss-up

Probability
61%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 41.5%
  • Liberal 40.7%
  • Conservative 17.4%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereRepentigny 41.5%40.7%17.4%5.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +14.2 45.4% −4.7 24.8% −7.4 5.1% +0.1
National averageCanada 5.7% +35.8 48.0% −7.3 32.1% −14.7 10.6% −5.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Repentigny, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 41% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 95% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Patrick Bonin

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
3.4 pts
Turnout
71.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patrick Bonin Elected Bloc 26,593 42.2 Political Advisor
Pierre Richard Thomas Liberal 24,419 38.8 Teacher
Charles Champagne Conservative 9,583 15.2 Bus Driver
Nathalie Gagnon NDP 1,722 2.7 Customer Service Manager
Benoit Lanoue PPC 384 0.6 Printer
Ednal Marc Independent 314 0.5 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 94.8%
  • Anglophone 1.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46