Riding profile

Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Xavier Barsalou-Duval

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.5
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 45.9%
  • Liberal 36.4%
  • Conservative 15.3%
  • NDP 6.8%
  • PPC 1.0%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HerePierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 45.9%36.4%15.3%6.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.6 40.7% −4.3 26.9% −11.6 7.0% −0.2
National averageCanada 6.1% +39.8 41.9% −5.5 34.8% −19.5 14.2% −7.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
7.2 pts
Turnout
76.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Xavier Barsalou-Duval Elected Bloc 28,765 46.1 Parliamentarian
Laurent de Casanove Liberal 24,217 38.8 Press Attaché
Vincent Kunda Conservative 7,375 11.8 Student
Jean-François Filion NDP 1,541 2.5 Teacher
Alexandre Blais PPC 528 0.8 Carpenter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 95.8%
  • Anglophone 2.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46