Riding profile

Beloeil--Chambly

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Beloeil--Chambly: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Beloeil--Chambly, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 95% francophone, 3% anglophone.

Sitting member

Yves-François Blanchet

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 47.6%
  • Liberal 31.7%
  • Conservative 17.7%
  • NDP 7.9%
  • PPC 0.8%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereBeloeil--Chambly 47.6%31.7%17.7%7.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +20.4 40.7% −9.0 26.9% −9.2 7.0% +0.9
National averageCanada 6.1% +41.5 41.9% −10.2 34.8% −17.1 14.2% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
14.1 pts
Turnout
75.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yves-François Blanchet Elected Bloc 32,844 48.3 Anthropologist
Nicholas Malouin Liberal 23,136 34.0 Political Advisor
Sylvain Goulet Conservative 9,199 13.5 Financial Security Advisor
Marie-Josée Béliveau NDP 2,391 3.5 Ethnogeographer
Nicholas Manes PPC 482 0.7 Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 94.7%
  • Anglophone 3.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46