Riding profile

Beloeil--Chambly

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Beloeil--Chambly: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.5
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 47.6%
  • Liberal 36.2%
  • Conservative 15.8%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereBeloeil--Chambly 47.6%36.2%15.8%5.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +20.3 45.4% −9.2 24.8% −9.0 5.1% +0.9
National averageCanada 5.7% +41.9 48.0% −11.8 32.1% −16.3 10.6% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Beloeil--Chambly, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 48% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 95% francophone, 3% anglophone.

Sitting member

Yves-François Blanchet

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
14.1 pts
Turnout
75.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yves-François Blanchet Elected Bloc 32,844 48.3 Anthropologist
Nicholas Malouin Liberal 23,136 34.0 Political Advisor
Sylvain Goulet Conservative 9,199 13.5 Financial Security Advisor
Marie-Josée Béliveau NDP 2,391 3.5 Ethnogeographer
Nicholas Manes PPC 482 0.7 Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 94.7%
  • Anglophone 3.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46