Riding profile
Vaudreuil
The question
Vaudreuil: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVaudreuil | 59.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% +14.5 | 24.8% +1.1 | 27.3% −12.5 | 5.1% −2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +11.9 | 32.1% −6.2 | 5.7% +9.1 | 10.6% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Vaudreuil, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 26% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 51% francophone, 40% anglophone.
Sitting member
Peter Schiefke
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Schiefke Elected | Liberal | 40,982 | 57.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Thomas Barré | Conservative | 16,179 | 22.8 | Lobbyist |
| Christopher Massé | Bloc | 10,571 | 14.9 | Environmental Consultant |
| Kalden Dhatsenpa | NDP | 1,602 | 2.3 | Journalist |
| Dave Hamelin-Schuilenburg | Green | 957 | 1.4 | Emergency Services Dispatcher |
| Jean Boily | PPC | 527 | 0.7 | Representative |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 51.2%
- Anglophone 39.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 9.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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