Riding profile

Vaudreuil

Federal riding — QC · Rural · fed qc

The question

Vaudreuil: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Vaudreuil, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 51% francophone, 40% anglophone.

Sitting member

Peter Schiefke

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 55.5%
  • Conservative 27.7%
  • Bloc 14.8%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereVaudreuil 55.5%27.7%14.8%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +14.7 26.9% +0.8 27.3% −12.5 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +13.6 34.8% −7.1 6.1% +8.7 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
34.7 pts
Turnout
74.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Schiefke Elected Liberal 40,982 57.9 Parliamentarian
Thomas Barré Conservative 16,179 22.8 Lobbyist
Christopher Massé Bloc 10,571 14.9 Environmental Consultant
Kalden Dhatsenpa NDP 1,602 2.3 Journalist
Dave Hamelin-Schuilenburg Green 957 1.4 Emergency Services Dispatcher
Jean Boily PPC 527 0.7 Representative

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 51.2%
  • Anglophone 39.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46