Riding profile

Lac-Saint-Louis

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Lac-Saint-Louis: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 70.2%
  • Conservative 26.5%
  • Bloc 3.7%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereLac-Saint-Louis 70.2%26.5%3.7%3.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +24.8 24.8% +1.7 27.3% −23.6 5.1% −1.9
National averageCanada 48.0% +22.2 32.1% −5.6 5.7% −2.0 10.6% −7.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Lac-Saint-Louis, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 70% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 19% francophone, 63% anglophone.

Sitting member

Francis Scarpaleggia

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
43.7 pts
Turnout
75.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Francis Scarpaleggia Elected Liberal 43,446 67.6 Parliamentarian
Matthew Rusniak Conservative 15,203 23.7 Entrepreneur
Tommy Fournier Bloc 2,330 3.6 Student
Gregory Evdokias NDP 1,877 2.9 Scientist
Raymond Frizzell Green 915 1.4 Postal Clerk
Mathieu Dufort PPC 471 0.7 Sales Representative

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 19.3%
  • Anglophone 63.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 17.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46