Lac-Saint-Louis
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lac-Saint-Louis | 68.1% | 25.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.3%+24.8 | 24.1%+1.7 | 27.3%−23.6 | 5.4%−1.9 |
| National averageCanada | 46.8%+21.3 | 30.4%−4.6 | 6.1%−2.4 | 11.2%−7.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Francis Scarpaleggia · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 43.7 points, with 75.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 42.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Scarpaleggia Elected | Liberal | 43,446 | 67.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Matthew Rusniak | Conservative | 15,203 | 23.5 | Entrepreneur |
| Tommy Fournier | Bloc | 2,330 | 3.6 | Student |
| Gregory Evdokias | NDP | 1,877 | 2.9 | Scientist |
| Raymond Frizzell | Green | 915 | 1.4 | Postal Clerk |
| Mathieu Dufort | PPC | 471 | 0.7 | Sales Representative |
| Other candidates | 439 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pierrefonds—Dollard Liberal, safe seat
- Laval—Les Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Liberal, safe seat
- Saint-Laurent Liberal, safe seat
- Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated