Riding profile

Drummond

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Drummond: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.9
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 42.4%
  • Liberal 30.5%
  • Conservative 24.1%
  • NDP 7.0%
  • PPC 1.6%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereDrummond 42.4%30.5%24.1%7.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +15.1 45.4% −14.9 24.8% −0.7 5.1% +1.9
National averageCanada 5.7% +36.7 48.0% −17.5 32.1% −8.0 10.6% −3.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Drummond, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Martin Champoux

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
14.1 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martin Champoux Elected Bloc 24,071 42.8 Parliamentarian
Ghada Jerbi Liberal 15,998 28.4 Medical Physicist
François Fréchette Conservative 12,790 22.7 Correctional Service Canada (Retired)
François Choquette NDP 2,607 4.6 Teacher
William Trottier PPC 773 1.4 Building Systems Technician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 97.2%
  • Anglophone 1.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46