Riding profile
Richmond--Arthabaska
The question
Richmond--Arthabaska: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Richmond--Arthabaska, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 2% anglophone.
Sitting member
Eric Lefebvre
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.8
- P(close race)
- 5%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond--Arthabaska | 38.5% | 30.5% | 27.2% | 4.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 26.9% +11.5 | 40.7% −10.2 | 27.3% | 7.0% −2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +3.7 | 41.9% −11.4 | 6.1% +21.1 | 14.2% −9.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éric Lefebvre Elected | Conservative | 22,206 | 35.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Alain Saint-Pierre | Liberal | 20,629 | 33.0 | Business Development Director |
| Daniel Lebel | Bloc | 17,095 | 27.3 | Engineer |
| Nataël Bureau | NDP | 1,248 | 2.0 | Data Analyst |
| Philippe D'Arcangeli | PPC | 707 | 1.1 | Paralegal |
| Réal Batrhino Martel | Other | 438 | 0.7 | Public Transit Driver |
| Henri Donascimento | Independent | 223 | 0.4 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 96.4%
- Anglophone 2.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46