Riding profile
Richmond--Arthabaska
The question
Richmond--Arthabaska: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 81%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 97%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond--Arthabaska | 36.6% | 35.0% | 27.2% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8% +11.8 | 45.4% −10.4 | 27.3% −0.1 | 5.1% −2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +4.5 | 48.0% −13.0 | 5.7% +21.5 | 10.6% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Richmond--Arthabaska, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 37% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 2% anglophone.
Sitting member
Eric Lefebvre
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éric Lefebvre Elected | Conservative | 22,206 | 35.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Alain Saint-Pierre | Liberal | 20,629 | 33.0 | Business Development Director |
| Daniel Lebel | Bloc | 17,095 | 27.3 | Engineer |
| Nataël Bureau | NDP | 1,248 | 2.0 | Data Analyst |
| Philippe D'Arcangeli | PPC | 707 | 1.1 | Paralegal |
| Réal Batrhino Martel | Other | 438 | 0.7 | Public Transit Driver |
| Henri Donascimento | Independent | 223 | 0.4 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 96.4%
- Anglophone 2.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46