Riding profile

Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 20% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Luc Berthold

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 62.4%
  • Liberal 19.6%
  • Bloc 16.8%
  • NDP 4.9%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HereMégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière 62.4%19.6%16.8%4.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 26.9% +35.5 40.7% −21.1 27.3% −10.5 7.0% −2.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +27.6 41.9% −22.3 6.1% +10.7 14.2% −9.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
36.7 pts
Turnout
70.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luc Berthold Elected Conservative 34,470 58.8 Parliamentarian
Charles Mckaig Liberal 12,594 21.5 Field Organizer
Réjean Hurteau Bloc 9,607 16.4 Retired
Gabriel D'Astous NDP 1,066 1.8 Student
Marek Spacek PPC 717 1.2 Self-Employed
Yves Gilbert Other 181 0.3 Marine Electrical Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.3%
  • Anglophone 0.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46