Riding profile
Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière
The question
Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière | 60.5% | 24.1% | 16.8% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8% +35.7 | 45.4% −21.3 | 27.3% −10.5 | 5.1% −2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +28.4 | 48.0% −23.9 | 5.7% +11.1 | 10.6% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mégantic--L'Érable--Lotbinière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 24% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 1% anglophone.
Sitting member
Luc Berthold
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luc Berthold Elected | Conservative | 34,470 | 58.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Charles Mckaig | Liberal | 12,594 | 21.5 | Field Organizer |
| Réjean Hurteau | Bloc | 9,607 | 16.4 | Retired |
| Gabriel D'Astous | NDP | 1,066 | 1.8 | Student |
| Marek Spacek | PPC | 717 | 1.2 | Self-Employed |
| Yves Gilbert | Other | 181 | 0.3 | Marine Electrical Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 98.3%
- Anglophone 0.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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