Riding profile

Beauce

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Beauce: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 60.6%
  • Liberal 21.4%
  • Bloc 13.8%
  • PPC 5.9%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc PPC
HereBeauce 60.6%21.4%13.8%5.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 24.8% +35.8 45.4% −23.9 27.3% −13.5 1.0% +4.9
National averageCanada 32.1% +28.5 48.0% −26.6 5.7% +8.1 1.0% +4.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Beauce, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 21% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jason Groleau

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
40.0 pts
Turnout
71.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jason Groleau Elected Conservative 37,604 59.7 Entrepreneur
Maryelle-Henriette Doumbia Liberal 12,057 19.1 IT Analyst
Gaétan Mathieu Bloc 8,595 13.6 Retired
Maxime Bernier PPC 3,626 5.8 Political Party Leader
Annabelle Lafond-Poirier NDP 1,100 1.7 Medical Doctor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.6%
  • Anglophone 0.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46