Riding profile

Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 27% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Dominique Vien

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 52.7%
  • Liberal 26.6%
  • Bloc 19.1%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HereBellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 52.7%26.6%19.1%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 26.9% +25.8 40.7% −14.1 27.3% −8.1 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 34.8% +17.9 41.9% −15.3 6.1% +13.0 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
17.8 pts
Turnout
72.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dominique Vien Elected Conservative 32,097 49.1 Parliamentarian
Glenn O'Farrell Liberal 18,642 28.5 Administrator
Gaby Breton Bloc 12,244 18.7 Humanitarian and Partnership Director
Marie-Philippe Gagnon Gauthier NDP 1,621 2.5 Communications Advisor
Mario Fréchette PPC 794 1.2 Software Architecture Consultant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.3%
  • Anglophone 0.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46