Riding profile
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis
The question
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis | 50.8% | 31.1% | 19.1% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8% +26.0 | 45.4% −14.3 | 27.3% −8.2 | 5.1% −2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +18.7 | 48.0% −16.9 | 5.7% +13.4 | 10.6% −7.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 1% anglophone.
Sitting member
Dominique Vien
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Vien Elected | Conservative | 32,097 | 49.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Glenn O'Farrell | Liberal | 18,642 | 28.5 | Administrator |
| Gaby Breton | Bloc | 12,244 | 18.7 | Humanitarian and Partnership Director |
| Marie-Philippe Gagnon Gauthier | NDP | 1,621 | 2.5 | Communications Advisor |
| Mario Fréchette | PPC | 794 | 1.2 | Software Architecture Consultant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 98.3%
- Anglophone 0.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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