Riding profile
Lévis--Lotbinière
The question
Lévis--Lotbinière: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLévis--Lotbinière | 48.9% | 31.6% | 19.7% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8% +24.0 | 45.4% −13.7 | 27.3% −7.6 | 5.1% −2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +16.8 | 48.0% −16.4 | 5.7% +14.0 | 10.6% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Lévis--Lotbinière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 1% anglophone.
Sitting member
Jacques Gourde
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacques Gourde Elected | Conservative | 33,312 | 47.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Ghislain Daigle | Liberal | 20,549 | 29.4 | Master Engineer |
| Pierre Julien | Bloc | 13,627 | 19.5 | Miller |
| Molly Cornish | NDP | 1,635 | 2.3 | University Student |
| Pier-Olivier Roy | PPC | 698 | 1.0 | Server |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 98.4%
- Anglophone 0.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46