Riding profile

Lévis--Lotbinière

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Lévis--Lotbinière: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Lévis--Lotbinière, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 27% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jacques Gourde

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 50.7%
  • Liberal 27.2%
  • Bloc 19.7%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HereLévis--Lotbinière 50.7%27.2%19.7%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 26.9% +23.8 40.7% −13.5 27.3% −7.6 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 34.8% +15.9 41.9% −14.7 6.1% +13.6 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
18.1 pts
Turnout
76.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jacques Gourde Elected Conservative 33,312 47.7 Parliamentarian
Ghislain Daigle Liberal 20,549 29.4 Master Engineer
Pierre Julien Bloc 13,627 19.5 Miller
Molly Cornish NDP 1,635 2.3 University Student
Pier-Olivier Roy PPC 698 1.0 Server

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.4%
  • Anglophone 0.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46