Riding profile

Beauport--Limoilou

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Beauport--Limoilou: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.0
P(close race)
28%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 37.6%
  • Conservative 31.4%
  • Bloc 28.6%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereBeauport--Limoilou 37.6%31.4%28.6%3.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% −7.7 24.8% +6.6 27.3% +1.3 5.1% −1.8
National averageCanada 48.0% −10.4 32.1% −0.7 5.7% +22.9 10.6% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Beauport--Limoilou, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Steeve Lavoie

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
5.4 pts
Turnout
68.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steeve Lavoie Elected Liberal 21,858 35.6 Manager
Hugo Langlois Conservative 18,492 30.1 Host
Julie Vignola Bloc 17,558 28.6 Teacher
Raymond Côté NDP 2,095 3.4 Customer Support Agent
Dalila Elhak Green 924 1.5 Public Servant
Andrée Massicotte PPC 396 0.6 Purchaser
Claude Moreau Other 95 0.2 Stationary Engine Mechanic

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.2%
  • Anglophone 0.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46