Riding profile

Louis-Hébert

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Louis-Hébert: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 57.4%
  • Conservative 22.5%
  • Bloc 21.1%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • PPC 0.8%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereLouis-Hébert 57.4%22.5%21.1%3.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +12.0 24.8% −2.3 27.3% −6.2 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% +9.4 32.1% −9.6 5.7% +15.4 10.6% −7.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Louis-Hébert, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 92% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Joël Lightbound

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
33.7 pts
Turnout
76.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joël Lightbound Elected Liberal 33,512 55.4 Parliamentarian
Valérie Savard Bloc 12,897 21.3 Political Attaché
Claude Dussault Conservative 12,164 20.1 Management Consultant
Jean-Paul Lussiaà-Berdou NDP 1,540 2.5 Retired Public Servant
Vatthana Maholy PPC 332 0.5 Financial Security Advisor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 91.9%
  • Anglophone 1.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46