Riding profile

Louis-Hébert

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Louis-Hébert: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Louis-Hébert, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 92% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Joël Lightbound

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.9%
  • Conservative 24.3%
  • Bloc 21.1%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 0.7%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereLouis-Hébert 52.9%24.3%21.1%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +12.2 26.9% −2.6 27.3% −6.2 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +11.0 34.8% −10.5 6.1% +15.0 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
33.7 pts
Turnout
76.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joël Lightbound Elected Liberal 33,512 55.4 Parliamentarian
Valérie Savard Bloc 12,897 21.3 Political Attaché
Claude Dussault Conservative 12,164 20.1 Management Consultant
Jean-Paul Lussiaà-Berdou NDP 1,540 2.5 Retired Public Servant
Vatthana Maholy PPC 332 0.5 Financial Security Advisor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 91.9%
  • Anglophone 1.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46